Free chess calculator
Expected points over a run
Set your rating gap to the field and how many games you'll play, and see the score you should expect — plus the range it can realistically swing across.
How you rate against the average opponent in the event.
A weekend Swiss is usually 5–9 rounds.
The single number hides the spread: even as a clear favourite, a short event can swing a point or more either way. Use the range, not the point estimate, to set expectations — and remember one bad round is noise, not a verdict.
Straight answers
Why show a range instead of one number?
Because a short event is noisy. Even a clear favourite can finish a point above or below their expected score just from variance. The range (about one standard deviation) is a more honest expectation than the single point.
Does it account for draws?
The expected score does. The spread uses a simple win/loss variance model, so it slightly overstates the swing when draws are common — treat it as a rough band, not a precise interval.
Related tools
Your win/draw/loss odds against any opponent, and exactly what a win, draw or loss does to your rating.
Turn a rating gap into a probability and plain odds — and see why the curve is an S, not a line.
Turn a tournament score into the rating you actually played at — the number a good event is really worth.
Educational chess content. Rating math uses the standard Elo model; results are estimates and vary by federation, pool and time control.